OTTAWA – Canada Energy Regulator says reducing net emissions over the next 30 years will require a much more aggressive transition away from oil and gas

The annual report on the energy future comes just days after the federal government introduced legislation to enshrine into law its goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050

But the report predicts that even with far more emission reduction policies than those currently in place, oil and gas would still account for nearly two-thirds of energy sources in three decades.

“Achieving net zero emissions (greenhouse gases) by 2050 will require accelerating the pace of transition away from fossil fuels,” the report says

Net-zero means that no emissions are produced, or that those produced are absorbed by nature or technology, so that none are added to the atmosphere, where they contribute to the global warming

The CEO of the regulator, Gitane De Silva, told The Canadian Press in an interview that the purpose of the report is not to comment on existing policy, but to paint a picture of the direction that could be taken. take things using various assumptions

“Really, we hope that this information will help inform this political process in the future,” she said

The 104-page report examines two potential scenarios for energy use in Canada One is to use only climate policies already in place Another “evolutionary scenario” adds impacts of expanding these policies , including increasing the carbon tax, lowering market prices for oil and gas, and reducing the costs of transitioning to renewables such as wind and solar power

Current carbon tax must stop rising in 2022 to $ 50 per tonne of emissions produced Government must review at this stage Regulator’s report examines what would happen if the carbon tax were raised $ 125 per tonne by 2050

Under the business as usual scenario, demand for oil and gas remains relatively stable over the next three years

In the “evolutionary scenario”, demand for oil and gas peaked in 2019 It will drop 35% by 2050 but will still represent 64% of all energy used

Canada currently obtains about a sixth of its energy from electricity, of which about 20% comes from the combustion of fossil fuels

In the evolving political scenario, the report predicts that electricity will produce more than a quarter of Canada’s energy by 2050, and that fossil fuels will provide about 10% of that energy

Darren Christie, chief economist at the Canadian Energy Regulator, says COVID-19 added much more uncertainty to this year’s projections as fuel consumption and production fell dramatically during restrictions of the pandemic

He says it is also not entirely clear how or if the country’s work and travel habits will return to pre-pandemic normal

Global energy use has fallen 6% due to the pandemic, and oil production in Canada has fallen by around 7%

The rolling scenario predicts that crude oil and natural gas production will increase 17-18% by 2039, but then start to decline, dropping 7-8% by 2050

De Silva notes that if the three oil and gas pipelines under construction are completed – Keystone XL, Trans Mountain and Enbridge Line 3 – they will together be the last pipelines Canada will need to build to handle the expected growth and production of fossil fuels. before it starts to decline

Report suggests Canada will also need to seriously step up the pace of electric vehicles to meet current targets Even in the evolving scenario, the report predicts that only half of passenger cars sold will be electric by 2050, a decade after Canada wanted them all to be electric

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News from the world – CA – Fossil fuels will drop but will remain a major player in energy consumption in Canada by 2050: report – ConstructConnectcom